Tuesday’s consumer confidence number will hardly matter in this Goldilocks’s market. Gloomier outlook will just mean more QE. A pick up in sentiment might lead credence that there is some kind of economic recovery underway. Forecast 61.0 previous 59.7. Perhaps more telling is the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s forecast of 52.6. This is a pickup from prior 52.4. I think this number could disappoint. A nervous market, the stronger dollar and the slack European and weakening Chinese economies might push this index down and with it the market.
Wednesday 1st of the month and the beginning of the dreaded sell in May and go away phenomenon. Chinese PMI. Nothing good has been coming out of Middle Earth lately. Expect more of the same. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is Rate decision meeting will have everyone on pins and needles with the prospect of easy money sooner than later. Chances are this is more like groundhog day but likely to add volatility to the mix.
Thursday OMG ECB rate decision. God help Western mankind if the Germans don’t stand down and let some of this easy credit was ashore in southern Europe. Natural gas storage figures are released and maybe the only commodity with a bullish chart is nat gas. No one expects it to continue to rise but then again everyone has stopped drilling with the idea that so much dry gas is just a by product of the liquids everyone is so keen to drill for.
Of course everyone will be looking at Thursday’s initial jobless claims as for a clue on the all important jobs number on Friday.
Friday the bond rally will come to a screeching halt if somehow the change in non-farm payrolls shows a big jump. This is a volatile number and the surprise to the downside didn’t hurt the market. Will a surprise to the upside make a difference?
This is going to be a very volatile week since the market is toying with resistance. Whether it breaks to the upside or sells off, it’s likely to be a week where deft traders will make money and investors wonder why they put up with this.