The market is waiting for something. If interest rates are going down, the newest popular market obsession, when will they actually go down? When will the Fed start the interest rate cuts, since everything seems to follow lock step with their interest rate policy? Sure, rates have dropped some around the periphery. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have come down. The national average is around 7%, and that’s a far cry from the 8% rates just a month ago, but we are talking drops around the margins. Compare this monthly mortgage rate on a $800,000 home today at $5322. That same loan just a few years ago cost the consumer $3592. I know firsthand. I had one of these mortgages.
Gasoline costs less than $3 per gallon at the pump, yet a full-scale war in the Mideast and oil supply disruptions seems likely. How is it possible that the world’s largest shipper,, Denmark’s Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) and German rival Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) said on Tuesday their container ships would continue to avoid the Red Sea route that gives access to the Suez Canal following a weekend attack on one of Maersk’s vessels.
Both shipping giants have been re-routing some sailings via Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope as Yemen-based Houthi militants attack cargo vessels in the Red Sea. The disruption threatens to drive up delivery costs for goods, raising fears it could trigger a fresh bout of global inflation.
China might invade Taiwan at any moment, ushering in a dark winter of semiconductor and rare earth mineral shortages if not World War III. Artificial intelligence threatens to change everything, but meanwhile, nothing is changing. The VIXs is at its lowest level in years. VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.
The market is waiting for something. Let’s hope its Q4 earings.
Name: Warren E Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway Inc
Position: 10% Owner
Transaction Date: 2024-01-29 Shares Bought: 1,669,219 Average Price Paid: $29.76 Cost: $49,675,721
Transaction Date: 2024-01-20 Shares Bought: 1,090,754 Average Price Paid: $29.76 Cost: $32,461,815
Company: Liberty Media LLC (LSXMK)
Liberty Media Corporation was established in 1991 in Englewood, Colorado. Owns stakes in subsidiaries and other companies involved in the media and entertainment industries, especially in North America and the United Kingdom. The company’s primary operations and assets include Sirius XM Holdings, Formula 1, Braves Holdings, LLC, and their equity subsidiary Live Nation. In November 2015, Liberty’s board of directors authorized management to pursue a reclassification of the company’s common stock into three new tracking stock groups, one to be designated as the Liberty Braves tracking stock, one as the Liberty Media tracking stock, and one as the Liberty SiriusXM tracking stock, and to cause subscription rights related to the Liberty Braves tracking stock to be distributed following the creation of the Liberty Braves tracking stock. Liberty SiriusXM Group (LSXMA) is one of Liberty Media Corporation’s three tracking stocks. Formula One Group (FWONA) and Liberty Live Group (LSXMK) are the other two tracking stocks.
Warren Buffett, the esteemed investor and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has added shares in the Liberty SiriusXM Group (NASDAQ: LSXMA) to the firm’s large portfolio. The strategic investment initiated on January 4, 2024, by a globally renowned value investor, is denoted by this action. Warren Edward Buffett is an American businessman and philanthropist born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska. He is regarded as the most successful investor of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Buffett, dubbed the “Oracle of Omaha,” was the son of Nebraska politician Howard Homan Buffett. After getting a B.S. from the University of Nebraska in 1950, he went on to study under Benjamin Graham at the Columbia University School of Management (M.S., 1951). Buffett moved to Omaha in 1956 and, in 1965, obtained a controlling stake in textile maker Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which he used as his primary investment vehicle.
Opinion: A legendary investor investing in a legend, John Mallone’s company. What’s there to figure out?
Name: James F Lynch
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 2023-12-29 Shares Bought: 500,000 Average Price Paid: $1.93 Cost: $963,700
Transaction Date: 2023-12-20 Shares Bought: 500,000 Average Price Paid: $1.73 Cost: $863,800
Company: Globalstar Inc. (GSAT)
Globalstar, Inc. is a leading mobile satellite voice and data service provider. The company was established in 1991 and is based in Covington, Louisiana. Globalstar, Inc. delivers Mobile Satellite Services through its satellite network, such as voice and data communications and wholesale capacity services. They provide these services through their network of in-orbit satellites and operational ground stations called the Globalstar System. The company provides reliable connectivity in areas not served or underserved by terrestrial wireless and wireline networks and when terrestrial networks are not operational due to natural or artificial disasters. They address clients’ growing thirst for connectivity by delivering wireless communications services worldwide. Their competitive advantages are leveraged through a strategy focusing on four pillars to increase shareholder value: wholesale satellite capacity, terrestrial spectrum, IoT, and legacy services.
James F. Lynch has been a director since December 2003. He has been the Managing Partner of Thermo Capital Partners, L.L.C. since October 2001 and a Partner of Thermo Companies. Mr Lynch was also Executive Chairman and CEO of FiberLight, LLC, a facilities-based provider of metropolitan fiber-optic network infrastructure and high-bandwidth connection solutions, from 2015 to 2017. Mr. Lynch was also the Chairman of Xspedius Communications LLC, a competitive local telephone exchange carrier, from January 2005 until its acquisition by Time Warner Telecom in October 2006, and the Chief Executive Officer of Xspedius from August 2005 to March 2006. Before joining Thermo Capital Partners, Mr. Lynch was a Managing Director at Bear Stearns & Co., an investment banking and brokerage firm.
Opinion: I would not want to compete with Space X’s Starlink service. Both companies operate satellite constellations with the goal of providing internet services to users around the world, including in remote or underserved areas. While Globalstar has been offering mobile satellite communication services for a longer period, Starlink, launched by SpaceX, has achieved lower costs by subsidizing its own satellite constellation from its private and government launch customers.
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Insiders sell the stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money. You’ve always heard the best information is inside information. Everyone with any stock market experience pays close attention to what insiders are doing. After all, who knows a business better than the people running it? Officers, directors, and 10% owners are required to inform the public through a Form 4 Filing of any transaction, buy, sell, exercise, or any other within 48 hours of doing so. This info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, although we subscribe to SECForm4 as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data. I’ve tried a lot of vendors. SECForm4 is one of the smaller ones, but I like supporting Frank. He is not arrogant. He’s helpful and has great prices.
The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be a seller. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock and options. Therefore, we analyze unusual patterns with selling, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. Unfortunately, the public information disclosure requirements about these programs, referred to as Rule 10b5-1, are horrendously poor. Also, planned sales that pop up out of nowhere are basically sales and are seeking cover under this corporate welfare loophole. I also generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and perhaps not the smart money on which we are trying to read the tea leaves. I say generally because some 10% shareholders are great investors. Think Warren Buffett and others
Of course, insiders can also be wrong about their Company’s prospects. Don’t let anyone fool you into believing they never make mistakes. Do your own analysis. They can easily be wrong, and in many cases, maybe most cases, have no more idea what the future may hold than you or me. In short, you can lose money following them. We have, and we curse aloud; what were they thinking!
We like Fly on the Wall for keeping up with what events might be happening, analysts’ comments, and whatever else could be moving the stock. Dow Jones news service is an essential tool, but many services pick up their feed like they do Bloomberg. For quick financial analysis, it’s hard to beat Old School Value.
A big callout to my assistant Ambreen, who sets up this conversation by listing the notable buys that I’ve identified. She probes the 10k for a reasonable description of the business. I’ve found that to be the most accurate and succinct place to find out what a business actually does. Microsoft’s Open AI’s power Bing and Google’s Bard are now essential tools.
This blog is solely for educational purposes and the author’s own amusement. Think of the blog as part of my personal investment journal that I am willing to share with the DIY investor. There are also many parts that I am not willing to share if I think it could influence trading action or be detrimental to the Fund’s partners. We could be long, short, or have no position at all in any of the stocks mentioned and express no written or implied obligation to disclose any of that.
The Insiders Fund is for qualified investors and by Prospectus only. Nothing herein should be construed otherwise. THE INSIDERS FUND prefers to invest in companies at or near prices that management has been willing to invest significant amounts of their own money in, but we have no requirement to do so. We also invest in many companies in anticipation of future insider buying or with the expectation that there is none at all.
You can be an insider, too– by clicking here
Prosperous Trading,
